February 19, 2025
With discussions surrounding potential tariffs on Canadian imports, stakeholders in Guelph’s real estate market are evaluating the possible consequences. If implemented, these tariffs could significantly affect housing costs, development projects, and market dynamics in Guelph and the surrounding areas. Possible Increase in Construction Costs One of the most immediate impacts of tariffs would be rising costs for construction materials such as lumber, steel, and aluminum. Since a large portion of these materials is imported from the U.S., tariffs could lead to price hikes, ultimately increasing the cost of building new homes. If material prices rise, builders may pass those costs onto buyers, potentially adding thousands of dollars to home prices. Industry experts predict that if tariffs are introduced, the additional cost per single-family home could range from $10,000 to $25,000. Potential for Higher Mortgage Rates Economic uncertainty caused by tariffs could influence the Bank of Canada’s interest rate policies. If inflation rises due to increased costs on imported goods, the central bank may opt to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Higher interest rates would directly affect mortgage rates, making borrowing more expensive for homebuyers in Guelph. With rising mortgage costs, buyer affordability could take a hit, leading to reduced demand and a slower real estate market. Those looking to purchase a home may need to reconsider their budgets or lock in rates before any potential hikes occur. Possible Slowdown in New Developments Developers in Guelph may hesitate to launch new housing projects if tariffs increase construction costs. A more expensive development process could lead to project delays or cancellations, tightening housing supply in an already competitive market. If fewer homes are built, demand for existing properties could rise, potentially driving up home prices. This would further strain affordability for first-time homebuyers and those looking to enter the market. Housing Market Uncertainty Even before any tariffs are imposed, the uncertainty surrounding trade policies can impact market confidence. Buyers and investors may adopt a wait-and-see approach, slowing down transactions and cooling off market activity. Conversely, if there is speculation that tariffs will push prices higher in the future, some buyers may rush to secure homes before the impact takes effect. This could create short-term market volatility, with a potential surge in demand followed by a slowdown. How Buyers, Sellers, and Developers Can Prepare Homebuyers : Consider securing mortgage pre-approvals early to lock in favorable interest rates before any potential hikes. If tariffs are implemented, it could make homeownership more expensive in the long run. Sellers : Monitor market trends closely. If tariffs lead to increased costs and reduced affordability, selling sooner rather than later might be advantageous. Developers : Explore cost-efficient alternatives for sourcing materials and streamline construction processes to mitigate potential price increases.  Conclusion While tariffs have not yet been imposed, their potential implementation could bring significant changes to Guelph’s real estate landscape. Rising construction costs, potential mortgage rate hikes, and a slowdown in new developments could all impact affordability and market stability. Buyers, sellers, and industry professionals should stay informed and prepared to adapt to possible changes in the housing market.
